Why a Retirement Probability Score Isn't a Plan

September 29, 2026

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If you've met with a financial advisor in the last few years, you've probably seen it: a single number, often shown as a percentage, telling you how likely your retirement plan is to "succeed." Maybe it was 85%. Maybe 92%.


It sounds reassuring. But ask yourself what that number actually tells you to do on a Tuesday in March, three years into retirement. Usually the answer is: not much.


What a probability score measures

Most success scores come from running thousands of simulated market scenarios and counting how many end with money left over. That's a useful stress test. It is not a spending plan.


A score won't tell you which account to draw from first, how much you can take out this year without creating a tax problem, or what happens to your income when Social Security starts or a pension kicks in. It also can't tell you what "failure" looks like. Running out at 94 is very different from having to cut back at 70.


What an income map shows instead

At Ison Financial Planning, we build a 15-year projection of the income each of your accounts can realistically generate. Instead of a single percentage, you see:

  • How much you can plan to spend each year, and where it comes from
  • When Social Security, pensions, and required distributions come into play
  • How withdrawals from your 401(k), IRA, and taxable accounts interact with your tax bill
  • Where the tight years are, so you can plan around them now


It's a plan you can actually follow, and one we revisit as markets, tax rules, and your life change.


Especially useful before you retire

Many of our clients are five to ten years from leaving work. That's the ideal time to build this picture, because there's still room to adjust savings, rollover timing, and Social Security decisions before they're locked in.


See your next 15 years

If your current plan stops at a savings goal or a success score, we'd be glad to show you what a month-by-month retirement income plan looks like for your accounts. Schedule a consultation or call (715) 675-0609.

This content is for informational purposes only and is not tax, legal, or investment advice. Securities and advisory services offered through Packerland Brokerage Services, Inc., Member FINRA & SIPC. Consult a qualified professional regarding your specific situation.

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